![]() ![]() Looking ahead, a recalibration of Fed expectations might see the US Dollar steady somewhat, potentially giving Australian exporters another bite at the cherry. It would seem that in the near term, AUD/USD is more likely to be influenced by ‘big dollar’ gyrations rather than domestic factors. ![]() Nonetheless, the Australian economy is in great shape compared to most other nations and the longer the Aussie stays in the 60’s the greater the largesse locally. That would be a stellar number except for the fact that inflation is right up there with it, making real growth negative. After the December verdict, the RBA will not be meeting again until early February.Īustralian GDP data will be released on Wednesday and forecasters are eyeing 6.1% growth year-on-year to the end of October. The market is pretty much 50/50 on a 25 bp bump up with 13 bp priced in.Ī Bloomberg survey of economists has a majority of respondents looking for a 25 bp hike. The path ahead is somewhat tricky going into the end of the year.Ĭrucially, the RBA will be deciding on rates this Tuesday. The crunch on the US Dollar sent the Aussie Dollar to a 13-week high above 68 cents. Equities rallied, Treasury yields collapsed, and the US Dollar went into a tailspin. Mr Powell spoke from the same song sheet, but the market danced to its own tune regardless of what the bass section was doing. ie, 50 bps at the December meeting that interest rate markets priced in months ago. Year-on-year CPI came in at 6.9% to the end of October, way below forecasts of 7.6%.Īll of this meant very little compared to the market reaction to the much-anticipated briefing from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday.īefore his remarks, a chorus line of Fed speakers got the message out that the bank will be raising rates by less than the previous four lifts of 75 basis points (bps). The official CPI reading for the RBA’s target band of 2-3% will remain as the quarterly number. These prints will cover 62-73% of the weighted quarterly basket. There will be two such releases between the quarterly figures. ![]() This contributed to an annual read of 9.5% year-on-year which was also in line with forecasts.īuilding approvals for October showed a decline of -6.0% month-on-month, well below -2.0% anticipated and on the back of the previous figure of -5.8%.įor the first time, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published a monthly CPI figure. Private sector credit for October showed growth of 0.6% month-on-month as expected. On the domestic front, retail sales for the month of October slid by -0.2% month-on-month instead of rising by 0.5% as expected. The Australian Dollar is bubbling higher after a tumultuous week that saw data and commentary collide. ![]()
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